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May 28, 2009 by editor.
We are finding out a lot about different players in these 2009 NBA playoffs—who is stepping up, who is taking it to the next level, who is going to be the next hero, and who is going to be the next goat?
One player that no one is talking about is Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics. His absence has probably had the biggest impact on these playoffs, more so than any other player.
For Boston, the impact was devastating. They went from being the favorite in the East to a middle to lower-tier playoff team. That drop is significant because the Celtics have two other All-Stars on their roster, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen.
They struggled against the seventh seeded Chicago Bulls who were minus Luol Deng—arguably their most complete player—and they eventually succumbed to Orlando in a great series that went seven games.
KG makes everything the Celtics do come together on the court defensively as well as offensively. He guards the basket on defense and allows everyone else to be aggressive because they know he is the last line of defense.
Garnett has a way of intimidating his opponents also, and gets into their heads. He often has his counterpart beat before the game is done because they know he is intense, relentless, and willing to get in your face if necessary.
Chicago continually went to the basket with no fear because of a lack of presence inside by the Celtics. This isn’t an indictment of Kendrick Perkins, but he is just not the player that KG is.
Last season, we saw how Garnett totally frustrated Gasol of the Lakers and played a big role in controlling Kobe Bryant in the championship series. Physically, the Laker front court was no match.
Over the course of his career, KG averages 11 rebounds per game. That means less opportunities for the opposition to get second-chance points. If it took Orlando seven games to beat Boston without Garnett, I can’t help but believe that the Magic wouldn’t have had a shot to win that series if KG was healthy.
Orlando would not have been able to double Pierce, and KG would have kept Dwight Howard occupied on both ends of the court.
Boston runs a lot of their offense through Garnett because he is an excellent passer from the post and recognizes how and when to get rid of the ball when double-teamed.
The Celtics struggled mightily in the playoffs because they didn’t have a low-post presence on offense. KG would have been able to score in the low post, and set up his teammates for easier shots.
He can also step out and consistently hit the f15-foot jump shot, which would have brought Howard and any other centers defending him away from the basket. KG is the ultimate team player that does everything for his team.
Unfortunately, many fans don’t realize his true worth untill he is not in the line-up. The regular season is one thing, but you cannot make up for an MVP type player of KG’s ability, even if you have two other all-stars on the team.
If you look at the big picture, KG has had more of an effect on this series than anyone else. The Lakers are considered by most to be the favorite, but when you see them get pushed around by teams that are more physical (Houston and Denver), I can’t help but think that Boston would have the advantage with a healthy team.
Orlando is on the cusp of making to the NBA finals because Garnett is hurt, and Cleveland is affected because they have had problems defending Orlando’s superior wingmen each time they have played in the regular season (and now in the playoffs).
KG is always close to the top of my list when it comes to MVPs because of what he does for his team, not just for where his team finishes. He is not appreciated as he should be because he is not selfish and plays the game the way it should be played.
His imprint is all over these playoffs, even though he was sidelined.
Posted in Basketball | Print | No Comments »
May 28, 2009 by editor.
We are all well aware of the success the Pittsburgh Steelers have enjoyed for 30-plus years now. It is really a testament to their management and unchanging philosophy, even in the times we are in.
The Falcons would do well to emulate their model of success, because there are no substitutes for it, or shortcuts.
The Steelers of 1979 didn’t dominate like their teams earlier in the 1970’s, but with many of their Pro Bowlers on the other side of 30, they served notice that they would not relinquish their title without a fight.
Their coach, Chuck Noll, was a no-nonsense man who played for the Browns and began coaching the Steelers in 1969.
He never wanted or desired attention for himself, and as good as his teams were we always told them they could be better, even after Super Bowl victories.
His first year they finished 1-13 in 1969, but the Rooney’s stuck with him and knew they had the right man to coach their team all along. Noll was a disciplinarian who had the full attention of his team.
The Falcons did well when they hired Mike Smith as their coach. He seems to know exactly the type of team he wants, and if management allows him to put things together and get his type of players, Atlanta could be special for years to come.
Noll and the Rooney’s built the Steelers into a hard-nosed, physical, run oriented team that took on the personality of the city they represented. Their defense, littered with hall of farmers, was all home grown.
The drafting of their talent shows that without a good front office that can evaluate talent, an organization will still be lost and spinning their wheels. Their front office is the main reason they have been as successful as they have.
They drafted Jack Lambert, John Stallworth, Mike Webster, and Lynn Swann in 1974. They got Mel Blount and Terry Bradshaw in 1970. Joe Greene and L.C. Greenwood were drafted in 1969, Greenwood being a 10th-round pick.
Jack Ham and Dwight White were brought into the fold in 1971. You don’t get lucky this many times. The Steelers front office never gets into the hype. They are looking for their type of player, and that is what they focus on.
All you have to do is look at the other front offices around the league to realize how important is to know what you need, evaluate the talent, and make it happen through the draft, and or free agency.
Detroit, Cincinnati, Washington, Oakland, and San Francisco to name a few, are some of the franchises that have suffered recently because of some of the decisions their front offices have made.
What made the 1979 team special in my eyes is that they were coming off of a Super Bowl year, and many of their key personnel were aging. They could have packed it in but didn’t. Noll wouldn’t let them.
They won early in the 70’s with a dominating defense and a powerful running game. By 1979 they were not quite as dominant, but still finished No. 1 in scoring defense. Their offense became very prolific in the passing game, and they had become a big play offense.
Their personnel didn’t change a whole lot, but the way they won games did. Pittsburgh didn’t need Bradshaw to come up big for their first two Super Bowl wins, but they needed him to come up big in 1978 and 1979.
Their system and tendencies didn’t change, but they raised their level of play to hold on to their Super Bowl championship they won the previous year, even with the bull’s eye on their back. That team was versatile enough to win any way they had to.
If they had to outscore you they did, if they had to grind you into the ground using their trap-blocking running scheme, they would do that.
As the Steelers showed in the Super Bowl versus the Rams, when they needed a big play on defense, they had the players on that side of the ball to get the job done.
Lambert’s interception was the biggest defensive play of that game.
It was the second time they won back to back Super Bowls, and we may never see that repeated again. The commitment to excellence was there from the front office, to the head coach, to the stars and leaders of team, and to the other players.
Another reason those Steelers were my favorite (and some other players in previous years). They had the best nick-names. Mean Joe Greene, Earnie (Fats) Holmes, L.C. (Bags) Greenwood, Dwight (Mad Dog) White, Dennis (Dirt) Winston, Donnie (Torpedo) Shell.
Holmes wasn’t on the roster in 1979, but his nick-name is worthy of mention. Glen Edwards, a defensive back on their teams teams earlier in the decade was known as the head hunter as well (for good reason).
Pittsburgh traditionally plays a physical style of football, which is the way the game is meant to be played. The Falcons would be well served to do the same, and to build their franchise the way the Steelers have built theirs.
Posted in Football | Print | No Comments »
April 5, 2009 by editor.
As we begin another baseball season, the National League East promises to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. The World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies look to repeat while the New York Mets try to shake off two years of frustration from folding in the last week of play.
The Atlanta Braves feel they are much improved from last year, and the Florida Marlins just may have the best starting pitching in the division. Let’s see how they break down.
Philadelphia Phillies
If the Phills are going to get it done again this year it will have to be on the backs of their pitching. Hamels is their ace, and Brett Meyers along with Jamie Moyer are their most consistent starters.
The question is the back end of their rotation. Joe Blanton did well as a late season pick-up last season, and Chan-Ho Park, who they picked up for the back of their rotation is a better option than Adam Eaton.
If they get better production on the back side of their starting rotation, they could run away with the division. Their bullpen is solid, but you have to wonder if Brad Lidge will be 41 - 41 in save situations again this year.
J.C. Romero, a key lefty coming out the bullpen will be unavailable until June because of a substance abuse violation, so they will have to hold it down without him until then. Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin performed well especially in the second half of 2008, so on the whole their pen is solid.
The line-up is solid, but it will be interesting to see how Chase Utley performs after his hip injury last year. Ryan Howard is in good shape and poised to have a monster season.
Raul Ibanez replaces Pat Burrell in left field, and even though Ibanez is a better all around hitter than Burrell, it makes their line-up very left handed. Jimmy Rollins is the key to their line-up. It seems that if he is going well, then Philadelphia goes well.
Their line-up will produce as they have been. Their bull-pen repeating what they did last year and the back end of their rotation will go along way in determining whether they win the division again.
Projected Finish - 1st Place
New York Mets
New York got busy this off-season wiping away any evidence of a bull pen that cost them the playoffs two straight years. Exit Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, and Joe Smith, and enter the saves leader from last year, Francisco Rodriguez, and J.J. Putz.
The Met’s will need depth in their pen if they want to over-come all the ills they have suffered. They are depending on Sean Green and the lefty specialist Pedro Feliciano to provide it. They shouldn’t have any issues in the eighth and ninth inning that they have had, which should result in more wins.
One of New York’s main problems from last year was they didn’t play well enough in the division. Good teams don’t struggle against the bad teams in the division as they did. A lot of that was because of the bull-pen, but there were times they just didn’t score enough runs, especially coming down the stretch.
The starting pitching should be good enough with Johan Santana leading the way. The keys will be how John Maine is after his injury problems from last year, and how Livan Hernandez does as the fifth starter.
Their starting pitching could either be good, or very good, baring injury. Once again, if the Carlos Delgardo from the second half of the season is the one that plays in 2009, then they will produce enough runs.
Ryan Church is a question mark in right, but with Gary Sheffield in the fold they have insurance. Young Daniel Murphy will get a lot of time in left and he performed well in spot duty last year. If Reyes, Beltran, and Wright perform up to standards, they should right there in the end.
I can’t pick them to finish first though. They have proven the last two years they didn’t have what it takes to get over the hump.
Projected Finish - 2nd Place
Florida Marlins
The Marlins fortunes will live and die with their starters. We know Ricky Nolasco is their proven ace, but Josh Johnson may be better, and has shown after coming back from Tommy John surgery that he can be dominant.
He lost only one of fourteen starts last year after returning to the rotation, and showed no ill effects of his injury. Chris Volstad is only twenty two, but finished 6 - 4 with a 2.88 earned run average, and he just figures to get better.
They could be the best one two three starters in the division easily if everything falls right. Their fifth starter, Andrew Miller (another young arm) didn’t pitch well last year, and probably could have used the time in the minors, but that being said he should improve.
Florida has young and talented starters that should keep them in a lot of games. The bullpen is suspect, and it remains to be seen who will be their permanent closer, but Matt Lindstrom will get the chance to be that guy.
Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla will anchor an offense that has question marks. Their outfield lacks power, (Cameron Maybin, and Emilio Bonifacio) and unless they excel at small ball, they will have problems scoring runs.
As usual the Marlins will go with their youth, and they have been competitive using that formula. If their bullpen holds up, and that is a big if, they will be tough to beat. Their starting pitching is that good.
Projected Finish - 3rd Place
Atlanta Braves
The Braves made some changes in the off-season that they believe will put them back in contention for the division crown. The biggest acquisition was Derek Lowe, who will assume the roll of staff ace until Tim Hudson gets back from the disabled list.
Javier Vasquez comes over from the White Sox, and they imported Kenshin Kawakami from Japan to further bolster the pitching staff. Rafael Soriano can be good out of the bullpen if he can dodge injury, and Mike Gonzalez is a capable closer.
The Braves also brought in Garret Anderson from the Angels to play left field along with Matt Diaz. The moves on paper look good, but a lot of things have to fall right for Atlanta to be competitive in this division.
Chipper Jones has to stay healthy, and we know that won’t happen over the course of the season. Javier Vasquez’s earned run average was 4.67 last year, and he didn’t show he can be a dominant starter with Chicago.
They are banking of Jeff Francoeur being a thirty home run, one hundred RBI man, when he has shown the last two years he is not. Jeff believes his swing problems have been worked out and he is ready to break out, but I have doubts.
Garret Anderson is a good player, and hits for average, but at this stage in his career he is not going to hit twenty home-runs, and his on base percentage was only .325 last year. Casey Kotchman is a gap hitter and not a power threat, and they are counting on Jordan Schaefer, a rookie, making major contributions in his first season in center-field.
Brian Mcann and Chipper will have to supply most of the power. If not, they will have to manufacture a lot of runs to be competetive.
There are too many things that have to break the Braves way in order for them to be in contention. When you add everything up it doesn’t come out to a playoff berth, especially in this division.
Projected Finish - 4th Place
Washington Nationals
It looks like the Nats will have to endure another season at the bottom of the division, or at least close to it.
They will start the season with five talented but inexperienced starters, and are willing to go through the ups and downs that come with the territory. John Lannan will get the opening day start, with Scott Olsen and Daniel Cabrera to follow.
As the season goes on they should get better. Their bull-pen, suprisingly enough is quite capable. Their closer is Joel Hanrahan, and he showed he can get the job done late last year, even with control problems. If he does the job they will have a good pen.
Adam Dunn will add some beef to a line-up that was pretty anemic for most of last year. If Ryan Zimmerman excels and Lastings Millege starts to fulfill some of his potential, they will score runs.
It will take time for their starters to gel. Long term Washington may have some young gems on their staff, but until then they will go through more pain.
Projected Finish - 5th Place
Posted in Uncategorized | Print | No Comments »
March 14, 2009 by editor.
Just like a college grad presenting his resume to get a new job, all of the college basketball teams are presenting their resume’s to the selection committee hoping they will be chosen. In the end it will all come down to perception.
If the commity’s objective is to get the best teams in and they use the same criteria, then you may be able to disagree with one or two, but not many. In order to get the best teams you have to look at the conference strength, as well as how they performed against the best teams in their conference and the country.
Conference strength is a tricky thing, but it has to be part of the equation, especially when dealing with the power conferences. Let’s look at how they break down.
Big Ten Conference
No one denies that Michigan State is the class of this conference, and that they are probably a two seed in the tournament. Illinois, Purdue, and Ohio State are in the tournament as well, but if you look at the conference as a whole it looks mediocre at best.
Penn State has 22 wins, but no signature wins. The best thing you can say about them is that they beat Illinois twice. The same with Wisconsin. There isn’t a real big win on their resume that sets them apart.
Minnesota and Michigan finished with identical 9 - 9 conference records in the conference. Even though they have 22 wins, Minnesota has lost 9 of their last 15 games overall, all to conference foes. That is not worthy of an at large bid.
Michigan has a win over UCLA early in the year, but they have lost 10 of their last 17 games, so they have limped to the finish line as well and are not in a position to get an at large bid.
Penn State is firmly on the bubble. Losses to Temple at home, and to Rhode Island early in the year at a neutral site don’t help, as well as a loss to Iowa on the road to Iowa that they needed, but they should be able to sneak in.
The conference is evenly balanced and pretty competitive but that can be deceiving. Is it because there are a lot of good teams that keep knocking each other off, or is it because they are all mediocre? I will go with mediocre, and only slot five teams from this conference for the tournament.
South Eastern Conference
The SEC is the weakest it has been in recent history. Florida was the class of the conference, but they are no longer championship material. When you see Vanderbilt and Kentucky close to the bottom of the conference standings, you know they have fallen on hard times.
Florida is out. No signature wins, and they played a weak schedule, so their 23 wins are without merit. Vanderbilt and Kentucky are also out.
Auburn has been playing better of late, even though they lost to Tennessee in the conference semi-finals. They are firmly on the bubble, and probably will be rooting for Tennessee to beat Mississippi State in the championship game so State doesn’t eliminate another at large bid.
It would be a nice story if MSU wins and qualifies for the tournament, but at this point the SEC would be fortunate to get three teams in. LSU is in, and the winner of Tennessee and MSU is in, but after that it doesn’t look good.
The conference is too weak this year to take a chance on another team. Tennessee possibly, but you would be better off taking a bubble team from a better conference because of the level of competition.
Big East
Arguably the best conference in college basketball. Two of their teams will be one seeds. Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Connecticut are the cream of the crop. Villanova, Marquette and Syracuse are not far behind and will have a chance to strut their stuff in the tournament.
West Virginia is on the bubble, but they had a good showing at the Big East tournament beating Pitt. Other than beating Villanova their resume might be a little wanting, but 23 wins in this conference will be enough.
Providence has a victory over Pitt as well, but early losses to Northwestern and Saint Mary’s don’t look good, so they are pretty much out of the mix.
Seven teams should make it from the Big East. Anything less than that would be a surprise.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Along with the Big East, the ACC can also lay claim to being the best conference. The usual suspects will qualify for the NCAA’s. North Carolina (probably a one seed), Duke, and Wake Forest are the cream.
Florida State has had a very good season and is a lock, along with Clemson and Boston College. Maryland is a question mark in peoples mind, but they do have wins over Wake Forest and North Carolina.
What we have here is another strength of conference issue. I think Maryland should get the benefit of the doubt here. Even though they have bad blow-out losses early on to Georgetown, and Gonzaga, and have a recent loss to a bad Virginia team, it might not matter in the end.
I think the ACC should get seven teams in, along with the Big East.
Pacific 10 Conference
The USC Trojans are in as a result of upsetting Arizona State in the conference championship game. That is bad news for Arizona, and I don’t think they have a prayer. Losing five of your last six games won’t impress anyone.
Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, and California are also in. This has been somewhat of a down year for the PAC 10, as some of the names we are used to seeing at the top of the conference standings are having down years.
Stanford and Arizona will miss the NCAA’s this year, but look to rebound next year. Arizona State has improved and is a lock after being wrongfully snubbed last year.
Big Twelve Conference
This conference may have turned out to be the most competitive of them all. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri are all ranked in the top twenty, so they are locks.
What we are not used to seeing is Texas having to scramble just to get an at large bid. They beat Oklahoma the last time they played, but had to go to overtime to beat the worst team in the conference (Colorado) last month, and lost to Baylor in their conference tournament.
The problem is that Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Texas A&M have the same conference record as Texas (9-7). What do you do? Do you put them all in the tournament, or leave a couple of them out? There is not much between the four teams.
I think they will get six, but one will be left out. My guess is that it might be Kansas State, but you never know.
Selection Sunday will be interesting, and there will be surprises and hurt feelings for sure, but at least in the end we will have a worthy national champion.
Posted in College Sports | Print | No Comments »
February 16, 2009 by editor.
More than anything else these days, steroid use in major league baseball gets more news and attention than what is going on with the teams and the preparations they are making for the upcoming season.
Alex Rodriguez has now become one of the poster boys of the steroid era (rightfully or wrongfully so) along with Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Bonds and Clemens may actually do jail time for lying to the feds, but A-Rod does not have that problem.
What is actually going on here though? A-Rod is on a list of a little over a hundred players that tested positive for performance enhancing drugs. He has said he did it over a three year period that ended in 2003. My question is, if major league baseball was interested in policing the players and enforcing any type of standard, why did it take so long for this to come out?
Why were there no clear cut rules and punishment in black and white that said if you test positive for X, then the punishment is Y, and if you have subsequent violations, you could and should be banned for life. Where was Bud Selig then?
If players know that they can use performance enhancing drugs and nothing come of it, they will continue to use them, even if they know it is wrong to do so. There is a lot of money at stake, and if they can get an edge on the competition they will do so. That is human nature.
It is not right, but with so much money at stake you can’t ask the players to police themselves. That is why we have bosses on our jobs. They have to make sure we we are getting our work done and enforcing the mandates of the company.
Bud Selig has failed in that regard. The players involved are taking most of the heat in the public eye and they deserve a lot of it, but by no means should Selig, and even the individual teams management be devoid of blame.
You have got to know that something is wrong (or may be wrong) when a player who normally hits ten to fifteen home-runs comes in looking like the Hulk and proceeds to hit twenty five to thirty home-runs in consecutive years. Take a guy like Lenny Dykstra who was on those great Met teams in the ’80’s, and later played with the Phillies.
He hit ten home-runs once in his first nine years in the majors, then proceeded to hit nineteen the next year and came into that year much bigger and visibly cut than in previous years. Am I accusing him of juicing? No. I am saying when the signs are there you at least have to question it and test as necessary.
Brady Anderson went from sixteen home-runs in 1995 to fifty in 1996. Mark McGuire won’t come out and say for sure whether he did or didn’t. If we took a hard look at the home run statistics of many major leaguers over the years we could compile a pretty good list of probable suspects, but this issue goes deeper than just the players.
In 2002 the owners and the players union were in negotiations for a banned substance policy that had some teeth to it. It was done as part of the collective bargaining agreement, which was mistake number one.
The players union fought and negotiated for a plan that was weaker than what the owners originally wanted, and because the owners didn’t want a strike, they caved. If they would have stood up for what was right for the game, the public would have sided with them strike or no strike.
As usual a business decision was made based on how much money was wrapped up in their franchises and the losses that a strike would cause. The players union was generally opposed to drug testing in it’s entirety, and that attitude didn’t help matters either.
The owners’ first proposal included a plan for in-season drug testing, instead of all year-round, as well as a policy in which first-time offenders would receive counseling instead of suspensions (again not tough enough). The players accepted that, but the union then succeeded in reducing the number of random drug tests and the severity of penalties for repeat offenders.
The players’ union also fought to have testing eliminated completely if less than 5 percent of tests returned positive results, meaning that even if as many as fifty nine players tested positive in a single season, the program would be discontinued, per the officials involved in the process. While that proposal was not accepted, the owners and players reached a compromise in which punitive testing would end if less than 2.5 percent of all players tested positive in consecutive seasons.
What we have today is the fruit of both parties not doing the right thing for the game. They chose instead to do the right thing for their pocketbooks. Looking at the facts, all parties are to blame. Not just the players. Now everyone wants to change records, ban players for life, and brand them as the worse people on earth.
That is the wrong way to look at this. What is done is done. All the parties involved did what was good for their own purse strings, or just turned a blind eye to everything. In other words they did what most people in our society would do, and there-in lies the problem. All over our society companies, management, and our government are selfishly doing what is in their own best interests. Financially, and for their own careers.
Why do we hold these baseball players to a higher standard and make more noise about their indiscretions than we do about other indiscretions that affect our lives more? Are the players that are guilty of cheating wrong? Without question. Did baseball and team management enable them? Without question.
Unfortunately cheating in one degree or another has permeated our society and if we take a hard look at ourselves we can find that we have failed somewhere down the line in the integrity department. We see on a regular basis that when significant sums of money are involved, it causes people to make the wrong choices and do things that they might not ordinarily do.
It’s not a good idea to make these men out to be monsters because they have taken banned substances, because we really don’t know them outside of the baseball diamond. We have to be careful as well about adjusting records, and putting an asterisk next to everyone’s name, and keeping people out of the Hall of Fame because of this.
If you do that, how far do you go to correct cheating and wrongs that were done? If you try to do it with the steroid era, then you need to do it for all era’s, and then you are on a slippery slope. How then do you correct the era where African Americans were not allowed to play in the major leagues?
A no tolerance policy with loss of wages for the year and stiff suspensions would take care of this issue once and for all and allow us to move forward and focus on what happens between the lines.
Posted in Baseball | Print | No Comments »
January 17, 2009 by editor.
The Baltimore Ravens have specialized in forcing their opponents into mistakes that give them a clear path to victory. That has been accentuated in their two playoff games versus the Dolphins and Titans. That has been their recipe for success.
Pittsburgh knows good and well that they cannot turn the ball over and hope to beat them. The Steelers trailed in both of the games they played against Baltimore, and that forces you to take chances, which is exactly where the Ravens want you. The Steelers came out on top barely in both games, but you can’t count on doing that every time against defense as good as Baltimore’s is.
It will be bitter cold in Pittsburgh Sunday night, and this will really be a throw back game that is what the NFL is all about. There is no doubt that a mistake in a crucial situation will decide this game as points will be difficult to come by.
The Ravens don’t ask Joe Flacco to do a lot. They rely on their running game, their defense giving them field position, and creating turnovers. Ben Roethlisberger will have to be mindful of where Ed Reed is at all times when he drops back, and he has to get rid of the ball to eliminate the chance of a fumble.
Baltimore has some injury issues to deal with at key positions that may be a factor. Terrell Suggs, the Ravens Pro Bowl linebacker may play, but is not at one hundred percent, and their starting corner-back, Samari Rolle probably won’t play. If Suggs can’t play or is ineffective that will be huge in this game.
Suggs is a great athlete that makes plays all over the field and helps disrupt everything that the opposing offences want to do. He gets after the quarterback, plays the screens about as well as you can, has cover skills, and is a perfect compliment for Ray Lewis. It will be easier for the Steelers to run the ball if Suggs is not in the game.
Le’Ron McClain is dinged up as well, but will play. The Steelers are pretty healthy, so they have the edge in that area. What will probably decide this game is the performance of Pittsburgh’s offensive line. That is the one area of their team that has been weak this year. If they can’t give Big Ben a little time to get the ball down-field, it will be a long day for Steeler fans.
If they don’t show up, that means sacks, interceptions, and points for the Ravens. If they play like they have been over the last month, Pittsburgh should win. The Steelers need to do what they do best on defense. Stuff the Ravens running attack and force Flacco to beat them with his arm. Flacco is good, and a budding star, but he is still a rookie. Pittsburgh has proven that they can get to him and cause turnovers in their previous meetings, so it will be just as important for him not to turn the ball over either.
The Steelers have shown they can come back from a double digit lead against Baltimore. Baltimore can’t say that, and they are not equiped to be able to do it. This will be a close, physical dog-fight, but unless the Ravens defense scores points, The Steelers will win. They are the better team.
Steelers 17 Ravens 10
The Arizona Cardinals have found their defense this post season and look like a completely different team. Playoff football is all about getting stops and being opportunistic on defense, and that is what Arizona has done.
They will have their hands full with Donavan McNab and the Eagles. He is not a rookie, and he is not Jake Delhomme. McNab has come up big against two of the best defenses in the NFC, and that leads me to believe he will not shrink in this game.
He has made the right plays at the right time this post season and he has a defense that has been styfling opposing offenses. The Cardinals have done it on both sides of the ball as well, and Kurt Warner is playing the kind of football that is reminding everyone why he was a winning Super Bowl quarterback.
It helps that he has Larry Fitzgerald and company to throw to, and they have lit it up this post-season. How the Eagles choose to defend the Cardinal’s passing game will go a long way towards deciding this game.
The Eagles are good at pressuring quarterbacks, and Warner is not very mobile. I don’t anticipate Warner having a lot of time to get the ball deep down-field often. I expect the Cardinals to put in a game plan that tries to take advantage of Philadelphia’s aggressiveness on defense. If they are successful, then they have a good chance to win.
Arizona’s defense has really been one of the big surprises of this post-season. They have done a great job stopping the run, and pressuring their opponents into making errors in the passing game after under-achieving badly in the regular season. Stopping an Eagles running game that is mostly absent anyway should not be much of a problem.
Shutting down the Eagles air attack is a different matter. McNab spreads the ball around very well, and if his offensive line gives him time he is capable of carving up Arizona’s secondary. Arizona is a different team then when they played Philadelphia earlier in the year, but I still think the Eagles will prevail.
Eagles 28 Cardinals 20
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January 3, 2009 by editor.
We have finally arrived at the most exciting weekend of the NFL season. Single elimination games on Saturday and Sunday mean that Wild Card weekend is finally here.
Interestingly enough, three of the visiting teams are favored. Given the parity in the league, that is not surprising, and it makes for some intriguing match-ups.
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
If you look at the way Arizona has played all year, it would seem like this game sets up perfectly for them. They were horrible on the road and looked unstoppable at home. They have an experienced quarterback that has won a Super Bowl and stud receivers.
They are playing against a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game. With all this, Arizona has glaring issues that can’t be ignored. They can’t stop the run, and few teams run it as well as the Falcons.
The Cardinals have feasted on the poor teams in their division. When they have played good teams, they have faltered badly.
In the last six weeks, they have lost at home to the Giants and Vikings, and were totally destroyed on the road by New England and Philadelphia.
The Falcons, on the other hand, played in a better division and had better results against the better teams. They pound the ball with Michael Turner, and Matt Ryan has been clutch at quarterback making plays time and time again.
They are a physical football team, and that is where I believe they will beat the Cardinals.
Atlanta’s rushing stats have been better at home but I think they have enough to beat Arizona. Matt Ryan is no ordinary rookie, and will not make critical mistakes.
Falcons 27, Cardinals 23
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have played thrilling and inspired football to squeak their way into the playoffs and have momentum. Phillip Rivers has been nothing short of spectacular, and it is not surprising to see him putting the team on his back and getting them to the post-season.
The Colts somehow have flown under the radar. They have been the best team in the AFC the last eight weeks, and no one can remember the last time they lost.
Peyton Manning is the best quarterback left in the playoffs, and when he is clicking on all cylinders like he is now, there is no stopping them.
The Colts don’t have much of a running game to speak of, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem in sunny San Diego.
Manning and crew are one of the only good teams in the league that don’t need balance on offense to be successful. It would hurt them in a bad weather game, but not this week.
The key match-up here is the Charger defense versus the Colts offense. In their game earlier in the year Indianapolis rushed for 93 yards and beat San Diego.
The Chargers must stuff the run and make the Colts one-dimensional. There also needs to be a LaDainian Tomlinson sighting.
Rivers will need to be Superman again along with LT, and their defense will have to be better than it was in their first game if they are to win. I believe another home team will go down here.
Colts 31, Chargers 20
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Much has been written about the resurgence of the Dolphins and the MVP-caliber season that Chad Pennington has enjoyed. Their offense is imaginative and diverse. Their play-calling and coaching is excellent, and they can beat you with the run or the pass.
The big question for them is how will they fare against one of the most physical and intimidating defenses in the league. Pennington is not very mobile and could be a sitting duck against Ray Lewis and the boys.
Miami will have to stay out of third-and-long situations so they are not at the mercy of the Ravens defense.
The Dolphins will have to use their entire offensive arsenal to keep Baltimore off balance. They will have to find something that works, whether it is the Wildcat formation or something else. This will be a tough game for them to win.
Fortunately for the Ravens they have not had to depend on their rookie quarterback, Joe Flacco, to make plays for them all the time for them to be effective.
Their suffocating defense keeps them in the game and they make plays off of their ground attack and play action.
Their defense is very proficient at scoring on opponent interceptions and fumbles as well.
I don’t see Ronnie Brown and Rickie Williams having a lot of success on the ground, and the Ravens will not let Pennington sit back and pick them apart.
The Dolphins will have to force Flacco to make critical mistakes for them to have a chance. As a rookie, he may be susceptible to the pressure.
Ravens 23, Dolphins 10
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings
The Eagles are on a roll right now. Donovan McNabb is playing with newfound confidence and the defense is playing lights out. Their third-ranked defense is shutting down the run, sacking quarterbacks and suffocating receivers.
This means that McNabb doesn’t have to be spectacular, just efficient. They will have to be good this week to stop Adrian Peterson.
Everything begins and ends for the Vikings with the threat of Peterson running the ball. If Philadelphia can’t corral him, it will be a long day for them. Over the last seven games, they have only given up 3.1 yards per carry.
The Vikings are not slouches on defense, either. They can line up and stop anyone. They have impressive wins this year over Carolina, Arizona, and the Giants (New York didn’t have much to play for at that point). They lost to Atlanta, but committed a ton of turnovers to help them.
The X-factor for the Vikings will be how Tarvaris Jackson plays. He will not be a sitting duck for the Eagle defense.
If Philadelphia applies the pressure, he can make plays with his legs. That could be a problem for the Eagles. Jackson also has the propensity to make turnovers when pressured as well, so a lot hinges on how well he plays.
Philadelphia’a running game has to at least be average. It has to be good enough so the Vikings can’t tee off on McNabb. They can’t be one-dimensional, or their season will be over.
Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter will have to be good running and catching the ball.
The Vikings played their way into the playoffs, but the Eagles have the momentum and have been playing better. I’m going with the Eagles’ playoff experience and defense to get them over the top.
Eagles 23 , Vikings 20
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December 28, 2008 by editor.
This is exactly what the NFL envisioned when they expanded the playoff format, realigned the divisions, and made it easier for players to change teams. Playoff spots are still there to be had on the last week of the season, parity abounds, and there are great story lines. This is what separates the NFL brand from the other major sports. Every game is immensely important because the season is short, and division games count twice as much.
Let’s take a look at some of the key games this weekend:
Dolphins at Jets
Miami has all the momentum coming into this game knowing that if they win, they are in the playoffs, and would tie them with the 1999 Colts for the biggest two season turnaround in NFL history.
Chad Pennington was jettisoned out of New York and thrown on the scrap heap when the Jets signed Brett Favre. Now Pennington has a chance to put drive the stake in the Jet’s heart by eliminating them from the playoffs and getting his team in.
Pennington has been more clutch than Brett Favre, as he has been making more plays in the last four games. We would have thought that Favre would be the one to will the Jets across the finish line, but that hasn’t happened.
To be fair, the Jet defense has been bad the last four games against sub par competition. They haven’t put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and can’t consistently stop the run.
Pennington has managed the games well and hasn’t made the big mistakes. The Dolphin defense was victimized by the Chiefs last week for almost 500 yards, and they have a couple of injury issues as well, but they have been the better team the last month.
With all the money the Jets spent in the off-season expectations were high. You can’t help but feel that this game has the same feel as the New York Met’s final games the last two years. That choking feeling. If they don’t at least win this last game at home, in all probability someone (players, coaches) will pay the price.
New York will have to run the ball effectively using Thomas Jones and Favre will have to make a couple of plays off of that. It is obvious they can’t depend on Favre to win the game by himself. He is not that quarterback anymore. Miami should be able to run the ball, and they need to force Favre into making critical errors. The obvious choice here would be to think Pennington gets his revenge and Miami makes the playoffs, right?
Jets 24 - Miami 23
Jaguars at Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens may be in the best spot of any team trying to get to the playoffs. All they have to do is beat a disappointing and demoralized Jacksonville team that hasn’t met expectations this year.
Jacksonville will try to run the ball against a Ravens defense that won’t let you run it effectively, and Gerrard won’t be good enough in the passing game to overcome a group that is hungry for a playoff spot. Flacco and the Ravens should be able to secure this game relatively easily, as long as they don’t get sloppy and turn the ball over.
Jacksonville has been so0 disappointing, they may have to start over again and gut the team after the season.
Ravens 20 - Jaguars 9
Cowboys at Eagles
Both of these teams had lofty aspirations at the beginning of the season, especially the Cowboys. They were supposed to contend for the Super Bowl, but it is possible for both teams to miss the playoffs if Philadelphia wins.
Dallas just has to win to get in, but they have been so inconsistent the last four games you don’t know which team will show up. Tony Romo has struggled and made bad throws under pressure against the Steelers and Ravens. He has a history of playing his worst football in December, and hasn’t done enough this year to dispel that notion.
The Cowboy defense has played well for the most part lately, with the exception of the last quarter of the Ravens game. They will need to make the Eagles into a one dimensional team by taking away their running game and then attack Donovan McNabb. The Eagles chances of getting in are slim, and they will know by the time they play if they have a chance or not.
They need for Tampa Bay to lose and either Minnesota or Chicago to lose for them to have a shot. They could have controlled their own destiny by beating the Redskins, but their offense struggled and they lost.
If the Eagles don’t make it, speculation begins immediately concerning Andy Reid’s and McNabb’s future with the team. Even if Philladelphia knows their going home for the new year, they will have enough motivation knowing they can send the Cowboys home as well, so they won’t roll over.
I believe Romo’s December swoons will continue.
Eagles 27 - Cowboys 24
Giants at Vikings
The Vikings will try again to clinch a playoff spot after they stumbled against the Falcons at home in their last game. The big advantage they have is that New York has wrapped up home field field advantage through out the playoffs, so the question is how long will they go with their starters?
The Vikings need to have the right answer to their own question. How many times will Adrian Peterson fumble on Sunday. The answer better be none if they want to play the following week. Minnesota has had four chances at play-in games in recent history and have failed each time.
Even without Brandon Jacobs, the Giants still have a potent running game, and they will need it against the stingy Viking run defense. I wouln’t put my faith in Minnesota in anything called a play in game.
Giants 24 - Vikings 17
Broncos at Chargers
This game will be heated and hotly contested. The two young gun quarterbacks don’t like each other, the teams don’t like each other, and the Broncos are on the verge of completing one of the worst collapses in NFL history. No one would have thought the Chargers would be in a position to punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win over Denver this week, but Denver has helped make it possible for them.
The Broncos led by three games with just three to go and have not been able to close the deal, while the Chargers continue to play inspired football and defy the odds by coming from behind, fighting, and clawing their way to victories. San Diego is playing now like many anticipated they would play all year.
Phillip Rivers has been clutch as he has led his team on this run. He leads the NFL in passer rating and touchdown passes. Jay Cutler has been impressive this year as well, but the Bronco defense has been sub-par all season and can’t be relied on the get consistent stops.
I look for the Chargers to pressure Cutler and force a couple of mistakes. San Diego is hoping for vintage performances from L.T., Rivers, and Antonio Gates. They will be at home, they have the momentum, and they have the will. I don’t think they will be denied. It will take a herculean effort from Cutler to get this win on the road. Denver will have to put up a lot of points and get some turnovers to avert disaster in this game.
The Chargers will win this one and be a very dangerous team in the tournament.
Chargers 31 - Broncos 21
Lions at Green Bay
This game will be watched because of its historical significance. The Lions will mercifully end their season on Sunday, and will end it without a win. Green Bay, who hasn’t had much to cheer about this year, doesn’t want to be the only team to lose to Detroit, so they will play hard and try to finish on a good note.
Their defense has been non existent, and even though Aaron Rodgers has been OK, they can’t seem to put everything together for a whole game. At least they are better then Detroit, who has no quarterback, an ineffective running attack, a defense that scares no one, and a front office that should have been broken up years ago. Move over Tampa Bay, you will have company after Sunday.
Packers 28 - Lions 17
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December 21, 2008 by editor.
There was a power vacuum left at the top of the women’s rankings when Justine Henin retired earlier this year, and we all wondered who would step up and be the next dominant number one on the WTA. Truth be told, we go into 2009 with the same question. There are many suitors, but for the first time in a long time the top spot is wide open for whoever wants to step up and take it.
Jelena Jankovic finished the year as the number one ranked player on the women’s player, but you can’t help but wonder whether she really believes she is the best. She is still without a grand slam, and it makes one wonder if she is number one because of the quantity of tournaments played, as opposed to the quality of her victories.
Jankovic won in Rome on the clay for her first title of the season, and she routinely goes deep into all the draws, but the majors have been her undoing. The feeling among the tennis pundits, fans and media alike is that your number one ranking should have some (at least one) Grand Slam attached to it.
I am not saying she didn’t have good results or win titles. She had nice tournament wins in Beijing, Stuggart, and Moscow, all on the hard courts, to go along with her win on clay in Rome. She has had sucess, but what is stopping her from breaking through on the big stages?
Jankovic relies on her tennis IQ, finesse, and consistency to overwhelm her opponents rather than power. The other women at the top of the rankings rely more on power, so if she is matched with a power player late in the draw and they are on their game, she will be at a disadvantage.
This being said, I believe it won’t be long before she breaks though. She has a good time when she is playing, she is never out of a match, and she plays with confidence and intelligence.
The one player who probably made the biggest strides in 2008 was Dinara Safina. She dominated the hard-court season in winning the U.S. Open series, and has consistently contended in most of the tournaments she was in.
Safina matured as the year went on and was in control of her emotions for the most part. She played with a confidence and determination, winning a number of close matches against quality competition. She is definitely a contender for the top spot in 2009.
It will be interesting to see how Maria Sharapova bounces back after missing a good portion of last year with a rotator cuff injury. She was at number three when she got hurt, and opted not to have surgury. If her rehab went well and she can serve consistently she will definitely be in the mix. Some of Sharapova’s shortcomings have been exposed though.
If she isn’t serving well the other parts of her game go south at times. She does not move as well as many of the other women on the tour and has to take control of the points early to be effective. She doesn’t play defensive tennis well. When her ground game is on, she doesn’t have to play defense. She simply overwhelms her opponents with her power and precision. Very few on the WTA can stay in a match with Sharapova when she has everything working.
I would not label her a disappointment, but many pictured Sharapova being number one and dominating the game years ago. She does have three slams to her credit since 2004 and has plenty of time to get more, but she has either been over-hyped, or mentally doesn’t quite have what it takes to maintain the level of excellence needed to stay number one.
Sharapova needs to develop and expand her game. She needs to come forward more and become proficient at the net to get cheap points. That will be a challenge because she is not a very good athlete as far as movement goes. If she does, then she could find herself back on top of the rankings again.
Venus and Serena Williams continue to be a threat in every slam they play in, and you can’t help but think that they are ones to beat in all the slams, with the possible exception of the French Open. They are now older than all of the other main contenders on the womens side and it is a testament to them that they are still playing at the level that they are.
They have been much criticized over the years for not playing as much as the other women on tour, for their father, Richard Williams, and for handling their careers their way. They are outspoken and dance to the beat of their own drum, but after everything that has transpired on the women’s tour in the last six years, the pundits are finally admitting that they got it right.
The wear and tear mentally and physically year after year has taken a toll on many of the players on the tour and have forced top players such as Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin to retire when they were at the top of their games. The Williams sisters never played hurt and paced themselves throughout each season which is paying dividends now as they are still winning slams and seem to be enjoying themselves.
Their outside interests also seem to be not only financially rewarding, but mentally therapeutic for them as well. They have stood the test of time. There seems to be little doubt that both of them could return to the top spot in 2009. How can we forget how a sub par and out of shape Serena Williams dismantled Sharapova in the 2007 Australian Open, and how Venus Williams seems to be invincible at Wimbledon.
They have learned to cut down on their unforced errors a little, while still being aggressive and coming forward to finish points. Serena’s serve is the key to her game. When serving well she has the best in the business and it sets up her unequalled an powerful ground strokes. She is better at serving out of more tough spots against top players than any one else.
Venus’ serve is dangerous as well, but it has been known to fail in the middle of matches. Her forehand also tends to break down during matches as well, but most of the time she gets it together in time to prevail.
If you look at the top women on the tour the Williams sisters are still the best athletes, even at this stage in their careers. With all due respect to the other women, they are still the best all around tennis players on the tour. Henin was the only player that was consistently beating them, and she is gone. Venus and Serena, and rightfully so, may be more geared up for the majors more than anything else. Cementing their legacy by adding to their Grand Slam totals may trump getting the number one ranking. Who can argue with them if that is the case? We tend to measure the greatness of the players by how many slams they win any way.
If Serena is serious about getting results and commits herself to being number one, I believe she will get there, hands down. Injuries and apathy could be the only things that slow the sisters down in 2009.
It is hard to figure out Ana Ivanovic. It is obvious she has the game and the ground strokes to play with, and defeat anyone. She has proven that, but her mental colapse after winning the French and losing the finals in Australia has to make you think. Breaking through at a slam is one thing. Being number one and staying there when the bulls-eye is on your back is something else. The pressure of being in the spotlight is not easy for everyone to handle. Some thrive on it and it doesn’t affect their games, but if you can’t you can easily lose your nerve and fold under the pressure of expectations.
Ivanovic is a great tennis player, has a great personality and graciously put everything in perspective after her early round defeats in the majors. Her over-all game and tennis smarts during the matches give her the ability to beat the Williams’ and Sharapovas of the world, but until she proves she can get to the top and stay there, she won’t be a favorite in my book to maintain a number one ranking.
Elena Dementieva and Svetlana Kuznetsova are solid top ten players, and should stay there because their consistent play and the fact that they play a lot, but they are not serious contenders for the top spot. Kuznetsova has had problems breaking through in key matches in the slams, and even though Dementieva is an excellent athlete, she doesn’t seem to have the goods to win the slams.
I believe four women have a chance to spend most of the year in the top spot. Keep in mind that doesn’t mean they are the best. It just means that their results were consistent enough to get the ranking. Jankovic is a good example of that.
Sharapova has a shot if she is healed, ups her game, improves her movement, and her serve dominates. Safina has a shot if she builds on what she did this year and works hard to improve every facet of her game. All she needs to do is take the next step. Jankovic needs to win a slam to get her confidence going and that will propel her forward. Serena Williams just needs to put the work in and be prepared. Nothing will be handed to her so she has to prepare thinking that if she doesn’t she will be defeated by a lesser opponent. She has to have a sense of urgency if she wants to get back on top and stay there.
They only thing that is sure about 2009 is that there is no clear cut number one or dominant player. Only time will tell us who is ready to step into that role.
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December 6, 2008 by editor.
As we enter the 2009 Tennis season, the stage is set for one of the most competitive years on the tour, especially on the men’s side. As 2008 ends it is not clear who has the momentum heading into the new year.
Roger Federer won the last major, which salvaged his year, but it was clear that Rafael Nadal was the clear number one, and not because Federer stumbled. He took it from him with his stellar play. Nadal has managed to do what Federer and Djokavic have not been able to do in the past year and a half. Consistently get better on the hard courts and grass courts. That is a tribute to his coach, Toni Nadal, (known as uncle Toni).
Instead of just dominating on clay only, he dominated on the other surfaces as well. The question is just how good can Nadal be? If he is still getting better, then the rest of the field has something to worry about. I for one, didn’t think that Nadal could take Federer down on grass, and it remains to be seen if Nadal can raise his game to a level where he can win majors on the hard courts.
If he can there is no telling how many majors he can win. We have to keep in mind that the brand of Tennis Nadal plays is not easy on his body. His strength is his speed and range, and that causes him to retrieve and hit a lot of balls that the other men on tour would not get too. The constant stopping and sliding on all the surfaces, including the hard courts takes a heavy toll on your joints and hips.
Leyton Hewitt played that way for most of his career and as a result he is battling a hip injury that could hamper him the rest of his career.
It is obvious that Federer wants his number one ranking back, and he wants to begin the season healthy, unlike his 2008 season. I believe this year will tell us whether he is on the decline, or if he has found a way to regroup, reinvent his game and take it to a higher level. Truly exceptional athletes do that, ala Tiger Woods and Michael Jordan. Nadal has upped his, now Federer needs to up his.
There are two other men at the top that will push Nadal and Federer. Novak Djokovic won the year end championships and served notice that he will not stand by and watch Nadal and Federer dominate the tour. His season got off to a good start in 2008 as he won the Australian Open, beating Federer in the process. He seemed poised to do great things, but was never able to build on it and get the results he was looking for until the season ending championships.
He is ranked number three, and if Federer is not careful Djokovic will pass him and be number two. He is only ten points behind, which is nothing. Andy Murray rounds out the top four and is the third of the trio that is trying to unseat Federer and bring in a new era tennis. Murray has matured and came into his own in 2008. He got good results at Wimbledon, and followed that up with a finals appearance at the U.S. Open. He is getting better and has proved he has the game to duke it out with Nadal, Federer and Djokovic.
At times Murray seems to be his own worst enemy, but he has matured and is frustrating his opponents with his match strategy and deceptive speed and athleticism. These four men, baring injury will be at the top of the tennis world in 2009, we just don’t know in what order. Wimbledon will decide how the season goes for Roger Federer. If he can come back and win it, and win the U.S. Open again, he will serve notice that he is not going anywhere. He also has to start the season healthy and not get knocked out so many tournaments early, which happened a lot in 2008.
If Nadal wins Wimbledon, it will solidify his claim to the number one ranking and serve notice to the other young guns that the road to the top goes through him now. No one beats him on clay, and if he wins two majors no one will catch him. Djokovic needs to successfully defend his Australian Open title to make a statement. If he does that he will jump Federer in the standings. He also needs to be injury free, and show evidence that his game is getting better. Murray needs to keep improving and know that he can beat anyone on the tour. As long as he doesn’t lose confidence he will be fine.
I predict that Nadal will finish number one, Federer will be number two, with Djokovic and Murray at three and four respectfully.
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